In his 2007 best selling book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, explores an idea which is relevant to the current debate on whether NY state should pay their full share of taxes on their forest preserve land.
“The book explores one big idea: that history is dominated by rare, unpredictable and extreme events. The author calls these black swans, alluding to the fact that Europeans had seen only white swans until black swans were found in Australia. The Great Depression, the 1987 stock market collapse, and the current financial crisis are examples. Black swans don’t have to be negative. Biotech firms that stumble upon breakthrough cures are black swans.
The human mind, evolved to cope with everyday tasks, deals poorly with rare but consequential events. People assume that the future will be like the recent past but in fact, the most consequential events may not have recent precedents.”
For example: NY state attempting to change how it has paid taxes on its public forest preserve land since the 1880’s. If they stop paying their full share, property taxes will go through the roof. No one really understands the consequences of this because it has never been tried before. However, all readers of the Huletts Current; if this happens, you’ve seen the black swan here already. This will be devastating to the private property owners of the Adirondacks. Please contact your downstate, state representatives. Don’t let the Governor get away with this proposal.
*Book Synopsis – Forbes Magazine February 2, 2009